📌 The US says it is not seeking favors for Russia with a diesel agreement. What about the war in Ukraine?

Tensions between Ukraine and the U.S. are stoking, while Trump says he is seeking to end the conflict. Three analysts put the factors at play on the table

WASHINGTON (AP) — The conflict in Ukraine has plunged tensions in recent weeks stemming from President Trump’s decision to establish a contract for Russia to supply diesel to the United States. This pact includes the relief of sanctions on Moscow.

Amid allegations by Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky, who says Trump benefits the “aggressor,” the White House chief argued, on Oct. 18, that the pact with Moscow is part of negotiations seeking an end to the war that began in February 2022.

“I don’t want to do anything that foolishly drives Russia away from the negotiating table,” he said. He said that “great progress” is being made and in this regard referred to the exchange of prisoners.

Subsequently, the US president said that he is willing to meet with his counterparts from Russia, Vladimir Putin, and China, Xi Jinping, to negotiate the cessation of war.

“I would meet with whoever was needed. I will do everything I can to end the war, whether someone is present or not. I will do everything in my power to end the war,” Trump said Oct. 20.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted that the possibility of a meeting was addressed during Putin and Trump’s telephone conversation on October 9 but denied that there was a deal for a meeting at the APEC summit in November in Shenzhen, China.

In the past week, Zelensky spoke with U.S. emissaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner amid attempts to ease the tensions unleashed recently between Kiev and Washington. The October 18 talk came in the framework of the revival of Russian and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructures in both countries.

According to Zelensky, “a lot depends” on the United States in the conflict. “It is clear that there are many issues at stake for all of us and that this war must end.”

“This conflict is going long because Putin doesn’t want to negotiate. Here it only ends when Russia feels some kind of pressure, “says academician Erich de La Fuente, professor of International Relations at the International University of Florida (FIU), to DIARIO LAS AMERICAS.

He adds that Russia bombs Ukraine every day. For now, he argues that the diesel agreement includes pressure on Ukraine.

Putin said Oct. 22 that he is ready to resume tripartite talks with Ukraine and the United States, but said it would be about a definitive peace agreement and not a “short” ceasefire.

Trump remarked, in recent days, the “serious damage” that the Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries would be doing, which includes “also in the United States.”

He added: “Farmers, ranchers and companies of all kinds are hugely affected, but Russia continues to send millions of barrels of diesel at a low price.”

In addition, the Republican president defended his decision not to sign the Graham Act with new sanctions against Russia. He said that “signing that document at this time would do” for Russia to withdraw from negotiations.

According to Trump, “Russia is doing very little to help the Islamic Republic of Iran compared to what it might be doing.”

“I want it to stay that way and that will be unless stupid people get in the way,” he added.

Clear policy

Internationalist Elsa Cardozo tells DIARIO LAS AMERICAS that it is being seen that “Trump’s position is openly hostile towards Ukraine and close to Russia. So when he says he wants this war to end, the question is how he wants it to end and on what terms. Well, he wants the war to end with Zelensky by accepting what the Russians are willing to give.”

Trump said the deal with Moscow is based on the U.S. national interest.

“There is a thesis that is present in the strategic doctrine of the United States and is one of the interpretations that I have seen that would have to do with the national interest and how the Trump Administration perceives it. The fundamental problem for the United States in the world is China, not Russia. So, let’s say, you don’t have to confront Russia, you have to look for ways to get closer to Russia and rather strengthen that relationship. In terms of energy, the approaches to Russia would mean taking weight away from Russia’s relationship with China,” she said.

Cardozo believes that the agreement is a very harsh sign “because they are resources that Putin is going to put into the war and his bet is that, since the operation in Ukraine was not successful in two or three days, but that it has become a war of attrition, he has no problem in impoverishing the lives of the Russians and compensating it with force and control.”

He points out that, while the agreement with Russia was being negotiated, Trump announced the energy truce, the truce to the attacks on the refineries.

“A truce that seemed to be only for the Ukrainians to respect it, while the possibility of attacks on the electricity sector, which is a terrible thing, was a huge vulnerability for Ukraine, was left completely open,” he says.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Oct. 19 that temporary exemptions linked to sanctions against Russia are due to the need to assess the impact of these measures on the international economy and energy supply in a context affected by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“These sanctions did not apply only to Russia,” he argued.

In turn, the official recalled that the measures also contemplate tariffs on other countries, including India.

Rubio said Trump is “frustrated” by Zelensky’s statements. “He doesn’t like to be blamed for things that are not true, like that, somehow, he ordered the supply of intelligence to be interrupted,” he said.

Zelensky denounced limitations on the SpaceX-designed Starshield satellite system, which was employed by the Ukrainian army to coordinate its anti-aircraft defense. Ukraine also said it did not receive early warnings of the latest Russian missile attacks on power plants in Kiev.

Midterm elections

Commander José Adán Gutierrez, former U.S. chief of naval intelligence and geopolitical analyst, told NEWSPAPER LAS AMERICAS that the agreement with Russia must be well analyzed. He stressed that the agreement was part of the midterm elections in November and issues of concern to citizens.

He does not rule out that U.S. policy around the Ukraine conflict could change after the election.

He adds that the Trump administration “has a very great interest in lowering fuel prices, with effects on the transport sector, agriculture, among others, that is why its agreement with Russia.”

Gutierrez also says, “I support what President Trump is doing in so many things, especially in our hemisphere. But that diesel thing, first it would not have changed anything, because Russia does not have enough diesel to export, moreover, they are using diesel from Iran.”

For Erich de La Fuente, the White House is taking all kinds of measures to lower prices and that leads him to make decisions “that I do not believe serve the interests of the United States, or Ukraine, but Russia.”

He believes that domestic policy is leading the Trump administration to take action that “even are inconsistent with what has been assumed so far at the foreign policy level.”

The researcher recalls that, prior to the agreement with Moscow, the US Congress approved a bill (Gramal Law) according to which sanctions were put on countries that buy Russian energy.

De La Fuente points out that the polls are detracting from the possibility of Republican candidates in the face of the midterm elections.

“People usually vote for domestic issues. The gasoline is high, the diesel is high and this affects everyone.”

Putin’s offensive

Putin said on Oct. 16 that Donetsk’s “liberation” is part of the next targets of the so-called “military special operation” in Ukraine, when only about 2,750 kilometers remain under the control of Kiev’s forces.

He also said that Luhansk “is completely” under Russian control and that, in addition to the expulsion of Ukrainian troops from Russian territory, control of these places is essential to establish a zone of “absolute security” and avoid possible aggressions in the future.

Moscow launched its first major attack on the Ukrainian electricity system since Trump announced an energy truce deal on Sunday.

Help Ukraine

Zelensky requested an additional 70 billion euros (78.7 billion dollars) from its European allies to finance Ukraine’s war effort next year.

“The sad reality of Ukraine is that Ukraine cannot defend itself if it does not have help from abroad,” says Commander José Adán Gutierrez.

Internationalist Elsa Cardozo agrees that Zelensky depends on external aid.

“The truth is that for the European Union it is a huge challenge to put more money and more weaponry. Europe has put resources there, financial resources, it has put up arms, but at this time, Ukraine has lost the material support of the United States.”

snederr@diariolasamericas.com

SOURCE: With information from the NEWSPAPER LAS AMERICAS/AFP/EFE